Second, forecast models differ in the math and physics equations that they use to move from the current condition of the atmosphere and turn that into a weather prediction. Even with a sophisticated measurement network including satellites, radars, weather balloons, ground-based weather stations, planes, and ships, forecast models must make assumptions to fill in the gaps between actual weather observations, in places like oceans, large forests, deserts, etc. Why do different models provide different forecasts?įirst, forecast models differ in how they collect the current weather conditions across the globe. This is for the United States and southern Canada from September 24 – October 10, 2019, from the American GFS model. Blue colors help to identify storm systems. Here's a 16-day forecast for the weather pattern at about 18,000 feet. Here's a 16-day precipitation forecast for the United States and southern Canada from September 24 – October 10, 2019, from the American GFS model. Here's a 16-day snow forecast for the United States and southern Canada from September 24 – October 10, 2019, from the American GFS model. What we often show, and what you often see, are graphics and charts that are created from this underlying data. Weather models provide gigabytes of forecast data each time that they run. High-Resolution = 3km resolution for the United States out to 60 hours (2.5 days).Standard = 12km resolution for North America out to 84 hours (3.5 days).Two versions: Standard and High-Resolution.mesoscale models are known as the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Then there are mesoscale (fine-scale) models, which hone in on more specific regions and tend to be able to forecast really small weather features better than the global models, like thunderstorms or snowfall within steep mountains.
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the "Euro" model and the United States' Global Forecast System (GFS) model.īoth of these models cover the entire globe: Two of the more well-known/used weather models are the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) a.k.a.
There are many forecast models that cover the globe or smaller regions, and each model is developed with its own formulas in an attempt to be the most accurate. We can use an image like this to know where storms may be in the future. These forecast models take current weather observations collected from thousands of locations (such as wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, pressure, etc.), make an estimate about the current weather for locations where no actual data exists, and then use math and physics equations to predict what will happen in the future.īelow is an image from the "GFS" forecast model, showing areas of high and low pressure as well as precipitation. Weather forecast models are computer programs that can help predict what the weather will be in the future, any time in the future from an hour to ten days out and even months ahead. Do you ever wonder what meteorologists mean when they mention "models", and how these models are used to forecast the weather? Here's the breakdown.
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